WATER SUPPLY FORECAST – May 2007

Contact: NWS - Ed Polasko (505) 244-9147
NRCS – Richard Armijo (505) 761-4428

Water Supply Forecast for New Mexico – May 2007

Coordinated Release: National Weather Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service

The water supply forecast through the remainder of the spring snow melt season calls for below normal to well below normal flows in nearly all rivers and streams in New Mexico.

Only Ponil Creek and the Vermejo River in the upper Canadian River Basin of Colfax Countyare forecast to have above normal flow volume from snowmelt runoff through June.

Runoff into the Rio Grande should provide 59 percent of normal inflow to Cochiti Lake and 45 percent of normal inflow to Elephant Butte Lake.

Flow from streams originating in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of New Mexico and feeding into the Rio Grande should range from 58 to 94 percent of normal.

Precipitation across New Mexico during April 2007 ranged from below average in the east central and northeast plains (and from Farmington to the Four Corners), to near average or above average elsewhere. Near record rainfall for April was reported from Las Cruces to the Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Reserve south of Socorro. April precipitation was above average in south central Colorado and near average in the southwest Colorado mountains.

Seasonal precipitation, October 2006 through April 2007, ranged from above average in the south central mountains, eastern plains, mid Rio Grande Valley, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the Colorado state line, to near average or slightly below average across the remainder of the state. Seasonal precipitation through April in the mountains of south central and southwest Colorado was near average to slightly below average.

Surveys by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service indicate that snowpack water content in the Rio Grande basin as of May 1 was 59 percent of normal, but 292 percent of one year ago when there was little to no snow in the northern New Mexico mountains. In the San Juan basin the snowpack water content was 55 percent of normal and 110 percent of the total of May 1, 2006.

In the Colorado high country headwaters of the Rio Grande, snowpack water content as of May 1, 2007 was 70 percent of normal and 170 percent of one year ago.

New Mexico reservoir storage is well below normal in the Rio Grande Basin and Canadian Basin, slightly above normal in the Pecos Basin, and well above normal at Navajo Lake. In the Rio Grande Basin, storage is 62 percent of the 1971 to 2000 normal and 129 percent of last years storage at this time. In the San Juan Basin, Navajo Reservoir storage is 126 percent of the 30 year normal, and 105 percent of the storage of one year ago.

This will be the final New Mexico Water Supply News Release for 2007.

WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
as of May 1, 2007

Weather Service Forecasting Office
Albuquerque, New Mexico

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