WATER SUPPLY FORECAST – January 2008

Contact: NWS - Ed Polasko (505) 244-9147
NRCS – Richard Armijo (505) 761-4428

Water Supply Forecast for New Mexico – January 2008

Coordinated Release: National Weather Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service

This first water supply forecast for 2008 ranges from below normal runoff for rivers and streams originating in the Sacramento Mountains to above normal runoff in the Rio Chama Basin and most of the Rio Grande Basin through the spring snow melt period.

Forecast flows on the Rio Grande include 124 percent of normal into Cochiti Lake and 131 percent of normal into Elephant Butte Lake. Other Rio Grande Basin reservoir forecast inflows range from 124 percent of normal at El Vado Lake to 80 percent of normal at Jemez Canyon Reservoir. Inflow to Conchas Lake is forecast to be 100 percent of normal while inflow to Santa Rosa Lake is expected to be 94 percent of normal. Navajo Reservoir is expecting 131 percent of normal inflow.

Flow in streams originating from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of New Mexico and feeding into the Rio Grande should range from 83 to 120 percent of normal.

Inflow to Bluewater Lake is forecast to be 128 percent of normal, while spring flows in the Gila River Basin should range from near normal to 120 percent of normal.

Precipitation across New Mexico during December 2007 was near average in the lower Rio Grande Valley, the plains of Chaves, Lincoln, Torrance, De Baca, and Guadalupe Counties, and from Raton into Harding and Union Counties. Precipitation during December 2007 was well above average in most mountain regions and across much of northwest New Mexico.

Seasonal precipitation, October through December 2007, ranged from well below average over most of eastern New Mexico to above average in the northern mountain regions.

Seasonal precipitation through December in south central and southwest Colorado was generally well above average.

Surveys by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service indicate that snowpack water content in the Rio Grande basin as of January 1 was 122 percent of normal, and 144 percent of one year ago. In the San Juan basin the snowpack water content is 134 percent of normal and 171 percent of the total of January 1, 2007.

Looking at historical January 1 snowpack amounts in the New Mexico portion of the Rio Grande Basin going back to 1995, the current early snowpack ranks as the third highest of the past 14 years.

In the Colorado high country headwaters of the Rio Grande Basin, snowpack water content as of January 1, 2008 was 137 percent of normal and 145 percent of one year ago.

New Mexico reservoir storage is well below normal in the Rio Grande Basin and the Canadian Basin, below normal in the Pecos Basin, and above normal at Navajo Lake. In the Rio Grande basin, storage is 53 percent of the 1971 to 2000 normal and 99 percent of last years storage at this time. In the San Juan basin, Navajo Reservoir storage is 114 percent of the 30 year normal, and 95 percent of the storage of one year ago.

This water supply forecast reflects conditions as of January 1, 2008 and assumes near normal precipitation through winter and into spring.

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