WATER SUPPLY FORECAST – April 2008

Contact: NWS - Ed Polasko (505) 244-9147
NRCS – Richard Armijo (505) 761-4428

Water Supply Forecast for New Mexico – April 2008

Coordinated Release: National Weather Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service

The water supply forecast as of early April 2008 ranges from well above normal runoff in the Rio Grande and Rio Chama Basins of northern New Mexico to well below normal runoff for streams originating in the Sacramento Mountains of south central New Mexico through the spring snow melt period and into early summer.

Forecast flows on the Rio Grande include 155 percent of normal into Cochiti Lake and 171 percent of normal into Elephant Butte Lake. Other Rio Grande Basin reservoir forecast inflows range from 158 percent of normal at El Vado Lake to 91 percent of normal at Jemez Canyon Reservoir. Inflow to Conchas Lake is forecast to be 92 percent of normal while inflow to Santa Rosa Lake is expected to be 98 percent of normal. Navajo Reservoir is expecting 155 percent of normal inflow.

Spring flow in the Rio Ruidoso is forecast to be only 37 percent of normal.

Precipitation across New Mexico during March 2008 was well below normal for most of the state as very little precipitation occurred after the first week of March. High elevation sites in the northern mountains near the Colorado border and locations along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains did receive 70 to 85 percent of normal March precipitation. It was also drier than normal in southwest and south central Colorado during March. The driest region of New Mexico so far in 2008 has been the east central and southeast plains.

Seasonal precipitation, October 2007 through March 2008, ranged from well below average in the eastern plains and southern border counties of New Mexico to well above average in parts of the northern mountains. Seasonal precipitation through March in south central and southwest Colorado had been above average to well above average.

Surveys by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service indicate that snowpack water content in the Rio Grande basin as of April 1 was 117 percent of normal, and 202 percent of one year ago. In the San Juan basin the snowpack water content is 129 percent of normal and 217 percent of the total of April 1, 2007.

In the Colorado high country headwaters of the Rio Grande Basin, snowpack water content as of April 1, 2008 was 140 percent of normal and 199 percent of one year ago.

Looking at historical April 1 snowpack water content totals in the New Mexico portion of the Rio Grande Basin since 1995, the April 1, 2008 snowpack ranks as the second best of the past 14 years. Snowpack water content was higher in 2005 at 142 percent of normal.

New Mexico reservoir storage is well below normal in the Rio Grande Basin and the Canadian Basin, below normal in the Pecos Basin, and above normal at Navajo Lake. In the Rio Grande basin, storage is 57 percent of the 1971 to 2000 normal and 95 percent of last years storage at this time. In the San Juan basin, Navajo Reservoir storage is 107 percent of the 30 year normal, and 83 percent of the storage of one year ago.

This water supply forecast reflects conditions as of the first few days of April 2008.

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