WATER SUPPLY FORECAST – January 2009

Contact: NWS - Ed Polasko (505) 244-9147
NRCS – Richard Armijo (505) 761-4428
 

Water Supply Forecast for New Mexico – January 2009

Coordinated Release: National Weather Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service

This first water supply forecast for 2009 ranges from below normal spring snow melt runoff volume through June for Conchas Reservoir in northeast New Mexico to well above normal runoff in the Rio Chama Basin.

Forecast flows for the Rio Grande include 121 percent of normal into Cochiti Lake and 127 percent of normal into Elephant Butte Lake. Other Rio Grande Basin reservoir forecast inflows range from 135 percent of normal at El Vado Lake to 104 percent of normal at Jemez Canyon Reservoir. Inflow to Santa Rosa Lake is expected to be 111 percent of normal while in the San Juan Basin, Navajo Reservoir is expecting 115 percent of normal inflow.

Flow in streams originating from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of New Mexico and feeding into the Rio Grande should range from 115 to 125 percent of normal.

Inflow to Conchas Lake is forecast to be only 72 percent of normal, while spring flows in the Gila River Basin should be near normal.

Precipitation across New Mexico during December 2008 was well above normal north and west of a line from Raton to Silver City as a highly active storm track from December 8th through the 27th spread rain and snow eastward from Utah and Arizona. Below normal to well below normal December precipitation was the rule for much of the eastern plains for the second consecutive month. Seasonal precipitation, October through December 2008, ranged from well below average over most of eastern New Mexico to well above average in the northern mountain regions. Seasonal precipitation through December in the south central and southwest mountains of Colorado was above average.

Surveys by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service indicate that snowpack water content in the Rio Grande basin as of January 1 was 169 percent of normal, and 138 percent of one year ago. In the San Juan basin the snowpack water content is 137 percent of normal and 102 percent of the total of January 1, 2008.

Looking at historical January 1 snowpack water content in the New Mexico portion of the Rio Grande Basin going back to 1995, the current early snowpack ranks as the best of the past 15 years. The current January 1 snowpack in the Rio Chama Basin is the highest since 1984. In the Colorado high country headwaters of the Rio Grande Basin, snowpack water content as of January 1, 2009 was 140 percent of normal and 103 percent of one year ago.

With the bulk of the snow accumulation season for the mountains yet to come, early prospects for spring snow melt runoff are excellent from the Rio Chama to the Rio Grande.

New Mexico reservoir storage is well below normal in the Rio Grande Basin, Canadian Basin, and Pecos Basin, but near normal at Navajo Lake. In the Rio Grande basin, storage is 67 percent of the 1971 to 2000 normal and 127 percent of last years storage at this time. In the San Juan basin, Navajo Reservoir storage is 99 percent of the 30 year normal, and 86 percent of the storage of one year ago.

This water supply forecast reflects conditions as of January 1, 2009 and assumes near normal precipitation through this winter and into the spring

WATER SUPPLY FORECAST as of January 1, 2009

National Weather Service Office
Albuquerque, New Mexico

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