WATER SUPPLY FORECAST – February 2009

Contact: NWS - Ed Polasko (505) 244-9147
NRCS – Richard Armijo (505) 761-4428
 

Coordinated Release: National Weather Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service

The water supply forecast for early February 2009 ranges from below normal spring snow melt runoff volume through June for Conchas Reservoir in northeast New Mexico to above normal runoff in the Rio Chama Basin and most of the Rio Grande Basin.

 Forecast flows for the Rio Grande include 118 percent of normal into Cochiti Lake and 124 percent of normal into Elephant Butte Lake. Other Rio Grande Basin reservoir forecast inflows range from 127 percent of normal at El Vado Lake to 96 percent of normal at Jemez Canyon Reservoir. Inflow to Santa Rosa Lake is expected to be 106 percent of normal while in the San Juan Basin, Navajo Reservoir is expecting 113 percent of normal inflow.

Flow in streams originating from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of New Mexico and feeding into the Rio Grande should range from about 110 to 125 percent of normal.

 Inflow to Conchas Lake is forecast to be only 75 percent of normal, while spring flows in the Gila River Basin should also be below normal.

 Precipitation across New Mexico during January 2009 was below normal to well below normal from the northern mountains to the Four Corners while precipitation elsewhere was generally less than 25 percent of normal. Albuquerque recorded no measurable January precipitation for only the 8th time since 1893. Seasonal precipitation, October 2008 through January 2009, ranged from far below average over most of eastern New Mexico to above average in the northern mountain regions. Seasonal precipitation through January in the south central and southwest mountains of Colorado was above average.

 Surveys by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service indicate that snowpack water content in the Rio Grande basin as of February 1 was 134 percent of normal, but only 91 percent of one year ago. In the San Juan basin the snowpack water content is 119 percent of normal but only 74 percent of the total of February 1, 2008.

 Looking at historical February 1 snowpack water content in the New Mexico portion of the Rio Grande Basin going back to 1995, the current snowpack ranks as the third best of the past 15 years. In the Rio Chama Basin, the early February snowpack water content is still the highest since 1997 despite the generally dry January conditions.

In the Colorado high country headwaters of the Rio Grande Basin, snowpack water content as of February 1, 2009 was 132 percent of normal but only 76 percent of one year ago.

 La Niña cold water conditions in the equatorial central Pacific Ocean may have been a factor in shifting the storm track well to the north and east of New Mexico during January. Forecasts for La Niña to persist into the spring would favor drier than normal conditions for New Mexico, especially across eastern and southern parts of the state.

New Mexico reservoir storage is well below normal in the Rio Grande Basin, Canadian Basin, and Pecos Basin, but near normal at Navajo Lake. In the Rio Grande basin, storage is 68 percent of the 1971 to 2000 normal and 125 percent of last years storage at this time. In the San Juan basin, Navajo Reservoir storage is 101 percent of the 30 year normal, and 87 percent of the storage of one year ago.

WATER SUPPLY FORECAST as of February 1, 2009

National Weather Service Office
Albuquerque, New Mexico

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs and martial or familial status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audio tape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-2791. To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer.