WATER SUPPLY FORECAST – February 2008

Contact: NWS - Ed Polasko (505) 244-9147
NRCS – Richard Armijo (505) 761-4428

Water Supply Forecast for New Mexico – February 2008

Coordinated Release: National Weather Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service

The water supply forecast for 2008 as of early February ranges from well above normal runoff in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande Basins to below normal runoff for streams originating in the Sacramento Mountains through the coming spring snow melt period.

Forecast flows on the Rio Grande include 172 percent of normal into Cochiti Lake and 183 percent of normal into Elephant Butte Lake. Other Rio Grande Basin reservoir forecast inflows range from 165 percent of normal at El Vado Lake to 111 percent of normal at Jemez Canyon Reservoir. Inflow to Conchas Lake is forecast to be 106 percent of normal while inflow to Santa Rosa Lake is expected to be 125 percent of normal. Navajo Reservoir is expecting 166 percent of normal inflow.

Inflow to Bluewater Lake is forecast to be 130 percent of normal, while spring flow in the Rio Ruidoso is forecast to be about 60 percent of normal.

Precipitation across New Mexico during January 2008 ranged from more than twice the monthly normal at many locations in the northwest (and at a few high elevation sites in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains) to no measurable precipitation in the southeast plains.

Seasonal precipitation, October 2007 through January 2008, ranged from well below average over the eastern New Mexico plains to well above average in most areas of the northern mountains. Seasonal precipitation through January in south central and southwest Colorado has been well above average. 

Surveys by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service indicate that snowpack water content in the Rio Grande basin as of February 1 was 148 percent of normal, and 142 percent of one year ago. In the San Juan basin the snowpack water content is 161 percent of normal and 196 percent of the total of February 1, 2007.

Looking at historical February 1 snowpack amounts in the New Mexico portion of the Rio Grande Basin going back to 1995, the current snowpack ranks as the second best of the past 14 years, trailing only 1997 when the snowpack water content was 163 percent of normal. The North Costilla SNOTEL site (16 miles east of Costilla) set a new February 1 snow water content record with 8.1 inches. The previous February 1 record snow water content (since records began in 1978) was 7.1 inches set in 1992. The Cumbres Trestle SNOTEL in southern Colorado (12 miles northeast of Chama) also set a new February 1 snow water content record with 30 inches in over 8.5 feet of snow depth.

In the Colorado high country headwaters of the Rio Grande Basin, snowpack water content as of February 1, 2008 was 173 percent of normal and 170 percent of one year ago.

New Mexico reservoir storage is well below normal in the Rio Grande Basin and the Canadian Basin, below normal in the Pecos Basin, and above normal at Navajo Lake. In the Rio Grande basin, storage is 55 percent of the 1971 to 2000 normal and 99 percent of last years storage at this time. In the San Juan basin, Navajo Reservoir storage is 116 percent of the 30 year normal, and 94 percent of the storage of one year ago.

This water supply forecast reflects conditions as of the first few days of February 2008, and assumes near normal precipitation through the rest of this winter and into spring.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs and martial or familial status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audio tape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-2791. To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer.