WATER SUPPLY FORECAST – March 2008

Contact: NWS - Ed Polasko (505) 244-9147
NRCS – Richard Armijo (505) 761-4428

Water Supply Forecast for New Mexico – March 2008

Coordinated Release: National Weather Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service

The water supply forecast as of early March 2008 ranges from well above normal runoff for northern New Mexico to well below normal runoff for streams originating in the Sacramento Mountains of south central New Mexico through the spring snow melt period. 

Forecast flows on the Rio Grande include 182 percent of normal into Cochiti Lake and 201 percent of normal into Elephant Butte Lake. Other Rio Grande Basin reservoir forecast inflows range from 169 percent of normal at El Vado Lake to 116 percent of normal at Jemez Canyon Reservoir. Inflow to Conchas Lake is forecast to be 141 percent of normal while inflow to Santa Rosa Lake is expected to be 125 percent of normal. Navajo Reservoir is expecting 178 percent of normal inflow. 

Inflow to Bluewater Lake is forecast to be 142 percent of normal, while spring flow in the Rio Ruidoso is forecast to be only 45 percent of normal.

Precipitation across New Mexico during February 2008 was 150 to 200 percent of normal from the Four Corners region through the northwest mountains to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, while the southern and eastern parts of the state were much drier than normal.

In general, winter precipitation (December through February) was much greater than normal west and north of a Raton to Silver City line where the storm track was most active. East and south of the Raton to Silver City line, precipitation during January and February ranged from well below normal in most areas to near zero in the far southeast.

Seasonal precipitation, October 2007 through February 2008, ranged from well below average in the eastern plains of New Mexico to well above average in most areas of the northern mountains. Seasonal precipitation through February in south central and southwest Colorado had been well above average.

Surveys by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service indicate that snowpack water content in the Rio Grande basin as of March 1 was 147 percent of normal, and 147 percent of one year ago. In the San Juan basin the snowpack water content is 158 percent of normal and 207 percent of the total of March 1, 2007.

Looking at March 1 snowpack water content in the New Mexico portion of the Rio Grande Basin going back to 1995, the current mountain snowpack ranks as the best of the past 14 years. The same can be said for the current March 1 snowpack in the San Juan Basin.

The Hopewell SNOTEL (18 miles east of Tierra Amarilla), Cumbres Trestle SNOTEL (12 miles northeast of Chama) and Red River Pass SNOTEL snowpack water content as of March 1, 2008 was the second highest of record for March 1 (since 1972, 1961 and 1961 respectively).

In the Colorado high country headwaters of the Rio Grande Basin, snowpack water content as of March 1, 2008 was 169 percent of normal and 183 percent of one year ago.

New Mexico reservoir storage is well below normal in the Rio Grande Basin and the Canadian Basin, below normal in the Pecos Basin, and above normal at Navajo Lake. In the Rio Grande basin, storage is 56 percent of the 1971 to 2000 normal and 98 percent of last years storage at this time. In the San Juan basin, Navajo Reservoir storage is 113 percent of the 30 year normal, and 89 percent of the storage of one year ago.

This water supply forecast reflects conditions as of the first few days of March 2008.

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